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The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US

Sylvia Kaufmann () and Paul Gaggl ()

VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We analyze quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976-2013. Based on common cyclical employment dynamics, we identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of “routine” and “non-routine” jobs. After decomposing the cyclical dynamics into a cluster-specific (“structural”) and an occupationspecific (“idiosyncratic”) component, we detect significant structural breaks in the systematic dynamics of both clusters around 1990. We show that, absent these breaks, employment in the three “jobless recoveries” since 1990 would have recovered significantly more strongly than observed in the data, even after controlling for observed idiosyncratic shocks.

JEL-codes: E24 E32 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: The cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the US (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US (2014) Downloads
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