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The Persistent Effects of Monsoon Rainfall Shocks in India: A Nonlinear VAR Approach

Matthias Hertweck () and Björn Brey

Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We examine the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural output, wages, and prices in India. The effects are highly asymmetric: agricultural output falls by 16% after a negative shock, but a positive shock has no significant effects. Although the drop in agricultural output is very short-lived, it elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices). This indicates that famines are caused by a persistent disruption in food acquisition, rather than by a shortage in food supply.

JEL-codes: C22 E32 O13 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-mac
Date: 2017
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