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Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities

Robert Czudaj () and Joscha Beckmann ()

Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature by assessing expectation effects from monetary policy for the G7 economies. We consider a sample period running from 1995M1 to 2016M6 based on a panel VAR framework, which accounts for international spillovers and time-variation. Relying on a broad set of expectation data from Consensus Economics, we start by analyzing whether monetary policy has changed the degree of information rigidity after the emergence of the subprime crisis. We proceed by estimating potential effects of interest rate changes on expectations, disagreements and forecast errors. We find strong evidence for information rigidities and identify higher forecast errors by professionals after monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that the international transmission of monetary policy shocks introduces noisy information and partly increases disagreement among forecasters.

Keywords: Bayesian econometrics; expectations; information rigidity; monetary policy; panel VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2018
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/181573/1/VfS-2018-pid-13510.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS, EXPECTATIONS, AND INFORMATION RIGIDITIES (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities (2018) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181573

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