Tracing the impact of the ECB's asset purchase programme on the yield curve

Fabian Eser, Wolfgang Lemke, Ken Nyholm and Andreea Vladu

VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We trace the impact of the European Central Bank (ECB) asset purchase programme (APP) on the yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the "free-float of duration risk" borne by pricesensitive investors. We include this supply variable in an arbitrage-free term structure model in which central bank purchases reduce the free-float of duration risk and hence compress term premia of yields. We estimate the stock of current and expected future APP holdings to reduce the 10y term premium by almost one percentage point. This reduction is persistent, with a half-life of five years. The expected length of the reinvestment period after APP net purchases has a significant impact on term premia.

Keywords: Term structure of interest rates; term premia; central bank asset purchases; monetary policy; European Central Bank (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E43 E52 E58 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/224540/1/vfs-2020-pid-39042.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program on the Yield Curve (2023)
Working Paper: Tracing the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc20:224540

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