 A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?Robert Schmidt and Johannes Leitner No 49, W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers from University of Würzburg, Department of Economics Abstract: The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts of novices. In search of reasonable explanations for the astonishing result, we evaluate the nature of professional and experimental expectations in more detail and find that while professional exchange rate forecasts seem to be biased predictors for the future exchange rates, judgmental forecasts appear to be unbiased. Furthermore, professional forecasters consistently expect a reversal of forgoing exchange rate changes whereas novices expect a continuation of current movements in the short-run and are reversed in the long-run. Keywords: Foreign exchange market; forecasting; behavioral finance; anchoring heuristics; judgment; expertise; expectation formation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:wuewep:49 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers from University of Würzburg, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.