Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence of Swiss Driving License Exams

Pascal Flurin Meier (), Raphael Flepp (), Philippe Meier () and Egon Franck
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Pascal Flurin Meier: Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich
Raphael Flepp: Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich
Philippe Meier: Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich

No 392, Working Papers from University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW)

Abstract: Employing a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – relative to those who failed narrowly. The candidates who passed the theoretical exam in their first attempt received more objections in momentary, on-the-spot kinds of decisions, consistent with the idea that worse preparation is the underlying behavioral difference.

Keywords: Outcome bias; Self-evaluation; Behavioral economics; Judgment; Regression discontinuity design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D83 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2022-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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