Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II

Daniel Waldenstr�m and Bruno Frey
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Waldenström

No 308, IEW - Working Papers from Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich

Abstract: Nordic historians have asserted for a long time that in the Nordic countries only few people, if any, perceived increased threats of war prior to the World War II outbreak. This would explain, and possibly excuse, why their governments did not mobilize their armies until it was too late. This paper questions this established notion by deriving new estimates of widely held war threat assessments from the fluctuations of sovereign market yields collected from all Nordic bond markets at this period. Our results show that the Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings hence question some, but not all, of the standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacit views and opinions of large groups of people in the past.

Keywords: Structural breaks; Sovereign debt; Capital markets; Historiography; Cliometrics; World War II (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G14 N01 N44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/52264/1/iewwp308.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II (2006)
Working Paper: Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries Facing World War II (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zur:iewwpx:308

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IEW - Working Papers from Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Severin Oswald ().