Details about Ray Fair

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu
Phone:	203-432-3715
Postal address:	Cowles Foundation Box 208281, Yale Station New Haven, CT 06520-8281
Workplace:	Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Ray Fair.

Last updated 2007-02-13. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfa24

Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2007

A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Also in Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2006)
Branch Rickey’s Equation Fifty Years Later
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Estimated Age Effects in Baseball
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2006) View citations
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University

2006

Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections
Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics

2005

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in Topics in Macroeconomics (2005)

2004

Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University

2003

Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002)
See also Journal Article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2003)
Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2001) View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2005)
Events that Shook the Market
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2000) View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Business (2002)
Risk Aversion and Stock Prices
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002)
Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002)

2002

Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations
On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Contributions to Macroeconomics (2002)

2001

Is There Empirical Support for the 'Modern' View of Macroeconomics?
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations
Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
See also Journal Article in Computational Economics (2003)
Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2003)
The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford
Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
See also Journal Article in Eastern Economic Journal (2003)

2000

Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations

1997

Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations

1996

Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Prices
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations

1995

Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1996)
Is monetary policy becoming less effective?
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University (1994)

1979

A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised)
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1980)

1978

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1979)
An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1980)

1977

A Model of the Balance of Payments
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (1979)
An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1979)
Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Econometrica (1978)

1976

A Model of the World Economy
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Econometrica (1977)
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1978)
The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations
See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1978)
The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University
See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1978)

1975

On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation, Yale University View citations

1973

A Comparison of FIML and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations

Journal Articles

2005

Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (4), 645-60 View citations
See also Working Paper (2003)
Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
Topics in Macroeconomics, 2005, 5, (1), 1302-1302
See also Working Paper (2005)

2003

Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2003, 7, (4), 1110-1110
See also Working Paper (2003)
Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations
Computational Economics, 2003, 21, (3), 245-256 View citations
See also Working Paper (2001)
Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22, (3), 307-341 View citations
See also Working Paper (2001)
The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford
Eastern Economic Journal, 2003, 29, (2), 159-163
See also Working Paper (2001)

2002

Events That Shook the Market
Journal of Business, 2002, 75, (4), 713-732 View citations
See also Working Paper (2003)
On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks
Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2002, 2, (1), 1045-1045 View citations
See also Working Paper (2002)

2001

Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules
Economic Policy Review, 2001, (Mar), 61-72 View citations

2000

Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 82, (1), 64-71 View citations

1999

Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?
American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (2), 58-62 View citations
Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies
Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, 21, (1), 1-28

1997

Response [Econometrics and Presidential Elections]
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11, (3), 197-98

1996

Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 11, (4), 431-35 View citations
Econometrics and Presidential Elections
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996, 10, (3), 89-102 View citations
Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996, 38, (2), 173-193 View citations
See also Working Paper (1995)

1994

How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 76, (1), 103-18 View citations
See also Working Paper (1991)

1993

Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 75, (1), 8-18
See also Working Paper (1989)
Testing Macroeconomic Models
American Economic Review, 1993, 83, (2), 287-93 View citations
Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models
Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 45, (2), 169-90 View citations

1992

Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints
Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 53, (1-3), 123-139
See also Working Paper (1989)
The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics
Proceedings, 1992, 133-157
See also Working Paper (1992)

1991

Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations
American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (5), 1276-94 View citations
See also Working Paper (1992)

1990

Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (3), 375-89 View citations
Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1990, 5, (4), 381-92 View citations
See also Working Paper (1991)

1989

The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (2), 325-31 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
The production-smoothing model is alive and well
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24, (3), 353-370 View citations
See also Working Paper (1990)

1988

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale
American Economic Review, 1988, 78, (4), 595-612 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change
Review of Economic Studies, 1988, 55, (4), 615-39 View citations
Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a macroeconometric model
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22, (2), 301-315 View citations
See also Working Paper (1987)
Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988, 103, (2), 313-32 View citations

1987

International Evidence on the Demand for Money
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, 69, (3), 473-80 View citations
See also Working Paper (1989)
Properties of a multicountry econometric model
Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987, 9, (1), 83-123

1985

Excess Labor and the Business Cycle
American Economic Review, 1985, 75, (1), 239-45 View citations
See also Working Paper (1984)
Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom
American Economic Review, 1985, 75, (2), 85-90

1984

Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation
Proceedings, 1984, 57-96
See also Working Paper (1984)

1983

Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models
Econometrica, 1983, 51, (4), 1169-85 View citations
See also Working Paper (1980)

1982

Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries
Journal of Political Economy, 1982, 90, (3), 507-35 View citations
See also Working Paper (1981)
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, 64, (2), 322-25

1981

Estimated Effects of the Oct. 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy
American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (2), 160-65

1980

Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models
International Economic Review, 1980, 21, (2), 355-78 View citations
See also Working Paper (1978)
Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models
Econometrica, 1980, 48, (6), 1381-91 View citations
Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model
Journal of Econometrics, 1980, 13, (3), 269-291 View citations
See also Working Paper (1979)

1979

A model of the balance of payments
Journal of International Economics, 1979, 9, (1), 25-46 View citations
See also Working Paper (1977)
An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets
American Economic Review, 1979, 69, (4), 539-52 View citations
See also Working Paper (1977)
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
Journal of Political Economy, 1979, 87, (4), 701-18 View citations
See also Working Paper (1978)
On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies
American Economic Review, 1979, 69, (2), 86-91

1978

A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978, 10, (4), 411-17
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
Journal of Political Economy, 1978, 86, (1), 45-61 View citations
See also Working Paper (1976)
The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978, 60, (2), 159-73 View citations
See also Working Paper (1976)
The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve
Econometrica, 1978, 46, (5), 1165-79 View citations
See also Working Paper (1977)
The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance
International Economic Review, 1978, 19, (2), 289-309 View citations
See also Working Paper (1976)

1977

A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator
Econometrica, 1977, 45, (7), 1723-27 View citations
See also Working Paper (1976)

1974

An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model
International Economic Review, 1974, 15, (2), 285-303 View citations
Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study
Econometrica, 1974, 42, (1), 177-90 View citations

1973

A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models
International Economic Review, 1973, 14, (2), 261-77 View citations

1972

A Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Program
Econometrica, 1972, 40, (4), 773
Disequilibrium in Housing Models
Journal of Finance, 1972, 27, (2), 207-21 View citations
Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-Regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1972, 54, (4), 444-49 View citations
Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium
Econometrica, 1972, 40, (3), 497-514 View citations

1971

Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971, 53, (2), 164-68
The Determination of Yield Differentials between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1971, 3, (4), 733-49 View citations
The Optimal Distribution of Income
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1971, 85, (4), 551-79 View citations

1970

Aggregate price changes and price expectations
Review, 1970, (Nov), 18-28
The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors
Econometrica, 1970, 38, (3), 507-16 View citations

Chapters

1996

Computational methods for macroeconometric models
Chapter 03 in Handbook of Computational Economics, 1996, vol. 1, pp 143-169 View citations

1993

Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation
A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, 1993, pp 157-178 View citations

1986

Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models
Chapter 33 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 3, pp 1979-1995 View citations

1977

ANNOUNCEMENT: A PROGRAM TO SOLVE AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL
A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 5, 1977, pp 174-177

1974

Methods for Computing Optimal Control Solutions: On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems
A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, 1974, pp 135-154
On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models
A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, 1974, pp 117-128