Details about Thomas Lubik

Homepage:	http://www.richmondfed.org/research/economists/bios/lubik_bio.cfm
Phone:	(804) 697-8246
Postal address:	Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Post Office Box 27622 Richmond, VA 23261
Workplace:	Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Thomas Lubik.

Last updated 2023-03-10. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: plu38

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Working Papers

2024

1. The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

2023

2. Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

2022

3. Searching for Hysteresis
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (1)
   Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2021) View citations (1)

2020

4. How To Go Viral: A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (3)
5. Is There News in Inventories?
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
6. Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)

2019

7. Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (5)
8. Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2023) View citations (1) (2023)
9. What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)

2017

10. Global Dynamics in a Search and Matching Model of the Labor Market
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
11. Real Rates and Consumption Smoothing in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Japan
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

2014

12. Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (6)
13. Modeling Labor Markets in Macroeconomics: Search and Matching
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (3)
14. What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)

2013

15. The shifting and twisting Beveridge curve: an aggregate perspective
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (7)
16. The time-varying Beveridge curve
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (1)

2012

17. Sales, inventories, and real interest rates: a century of stylized facts
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (7)

2011

18. Aggregate labor market dynamics in Hong Kong
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
19. Deep Habits in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (1)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2011) View citations (1)

2010

20. Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
21. Inventories, Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (8)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2010) View citations (1)
22. On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (6)
    Also in 2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) View citations (2)
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2007) View citations (26)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (2)
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics (2004) View citations (23)

2009

23. Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy
    Discussion Papers, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) View citations (7)
    Also in School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy (2009) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Inventories and optimal monetary policy, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2009) View citations (6) (2009)

2008

24. Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (120)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2008) View citations (86)
    See also Journal Article Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (114) (2008)

2007

25. Does intra-firm bargaining matter for business cycle dynamics?
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Does Intra-Firm Bargaining Matter for Business Cycle Dynamics?, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2013) View citations (11) (2013)

2006

26. The Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics
27. The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (29) (2010)

2005

28. A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (395)
    See also Chapter A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (153) (2006)
29. A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article A simple, structural, and empirical model of the antipodean transmission mechanism, New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals (2006) View citations (1) (2006)
30. Did the Tail Wag the Dog? Fiscal Policy and the Federal Reserve during the Great Inflation
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics View citations (4)
31. Do Terms of Trade Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics View citations (8)
32. Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (43)
33. Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two Sector with Different Degree of Price and Wage Stickiness
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics
34. Persistence, Propagation and On-the-Job Search
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics

2004

35. A Note on Instability and Indeterminacy in Search and Matching Models
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (8)
36. How Large Are Returns to Scale in the U.S.? A View Across the Boundary
    Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (1)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article How Large Are Returns to Scale in the U.S.? A View Across the Boundary, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2016) View citations (2) (2016)
37. Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Automatic Stabilizers: Welfare and Macroeconomic Stability
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics View citations (1)
38. On-the-Job Search and Business Cycle Dynamics
    Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004)

2003

39. An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model, International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier (2007) View citations (36) (2007)
40. Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (79)
    See also Journal Article Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (412) (2007)
41. Estimating Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies: A Structural Approach
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (3)
42. Industrial Structure and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (5)
43. Investment Spending,Equilibrium Indeterminacy and the Interactions of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (6)
44. Real Wage Dynamics in a Monetary Business Cycle Model with Search Frictions
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics
45. Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2004) View citations (973) (2004)
46. The (Ir)relevance of Real Wage Rigidity in the New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (47)
    See also Journal Article The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (424) (2007)

2002

47. Computing Sunspots in Linear Rational Expectations Models
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (2)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002) View citations (1)
48. Testing for Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics View citations (3)

2000

49. International Comovement Revisited: The Role of Non-Traded Goods and Price Stickiness
    Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics View citations (3)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Sentiment About Business Debt as a Leading Economic Indicator
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2025, 25, (09)

2024

2. Examining the Differences in r* Estimates
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2024, 24, (36)
3. Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2024, 24, (10)
4. When Economists Navigate by the Stars
   Econ Focus, 2024, 24, (1Q/2Q), 32

2023

5. Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information
   Review of Economic Dynamics, 2023, 49, 37-57 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information, Working Paper (2019) View citations (2) (2019)
6. The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2023, 23, (32) View citations (1)

2022

7. Analyzing Fiscal Policy Matters More Than Ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2022, 22, (39) View citations (1)
8. How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2022, 22, (03)

2021

9. MMT and Government Finance: You Can't Always Get What You Want
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2021, 21, (12) View citations (1)
10. Revisiting the Beveridge Curve: Why Has It Shifted so Dramatically?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2021, 21, (36) View citations (3)
11. Seek and Ye Shall Not Find: The Absence of Hysteresis in U.S. Macroeconomic Data
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2021, 21, (04)

2020

12. COVID-19 over Time and across States: Predictions from a Statistical Model
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2020, 20, (10)
13. Public and Private Debt after the Pandemic and Policy Normalization
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2020, (20-06), 6 View citations (1)

2019

14. A Closer Look at Japan's Rising Consumption Tax
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2019, (October)
15. How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?
    Economic Quarterly, 2019, (1Q), 41-54 View citations (2)
16. Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2019, (April), 1-8

2018

17. How Likely Is a Return to the Zero Lower Bound?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2018, (September) View citations (1)

2017

18. Should We Worry about Trade Imbalances?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2017, (October) View citations (1)

2016

19. Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs
    Economic Quarterly, 2016, (3Q), 197-226 View citations (10)
20. How Large Are Returns to Scale in the U.S.? A View Across the Boundary
    Economic Quarterly, 2016, (1Q), 79-103 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper How Large Are Returns to Scale in the U.S.? A View Across the Boundary, Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
21. The Burns Disinflation of 1974
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2016, (November)
22. Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2016, (June)

2015

23. Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2015, (Oct) View citations (84)
24. How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2015, (February) View citations (2)
25. The Rise in Long-Term Unemployment: Potential Causes and Implications
    Economic Quarterly, 2015, (2Q), 125-149 View citations (1)
26. Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions: Specification, Estimation, and an Application
    Economic Quarterly, 2015, (4Q), 323-352 View citations (18)

2014

27. Putting the Beveridge Curve Back to Work
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2014, (Sept) View citations (2)

2013

28. Does Intra-Firm Bargaining Matter for Business Cycle Dynamics?
    Economic Quarterly, 2013, (3Q), 229-250 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Does intra-firm bargaining matter for business cycle dynamics?, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies (2007) View citations (22) (2007)
29. Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2013, (Sept) View citations (1)

2012

30. Exchange rate volatility in a simple model of firm entry and FDI
    Economic Quarterly, 2012, 98, (1Q), 51-76 View citations (3)
31. TARGET2: symptom, not cause, of eurozone woes
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2012, (Aug) View citations (1)

2011

32. Accounting for the non-employment of U.S. men, 1968-2010
    Economic Quarterly, 2011, 97, (4Q), 359-387
33. Monetary policy with unknown natural rates
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2011, (Jul)
34. Potential causes and implications of the rise in long-term unemployment
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2011, (Sep)

2010

35. Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model
    Economic Quarterly, 2010, 96, (3Q), 259-272 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies (2010) View citations (16) (2010)
36. Is the output gap a faulty gauge for monetary policy?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2010, (Jan) View citations (4)
37. The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 177-194 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models, Working Paper (2006) View citations (11) (2006)

2009

38. Estimating a search and matching model of the aggregate labor market
    Economic Quarterly, 2009, 95, (Spr), 101-120 View citations (20)
39. Inventories and optimal monetary policy
    Economic Quarterly, 2009, 95, (Fall), 357-382 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy, Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (7) (2009)

2008

40. Do search frictions matter for inflation dynamics?
    European Economic Review, 2008, 52, (8), 1464-1479 View citations (13)
41. Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (5), 892-916 View citations (114)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis, CEPR Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (120) (2008)

2007

42. An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model
    International Review of Economics & Finance, 2007, 16, (1), 15-36 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model, Economics Working Paper Archive (2003) View citations (12) (2003)
43. Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (4), 1069-1087 View citations (412)
    See also Working Paper Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation, Economics Working Paper Archive (2003) View citations (79) (2003)
44. Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are \\"closed\\"
    Economic Quarterly, 2007, 93, (Fall), 393-412 View citations (36)
45. Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Reply
    American Economic Review, 2007, 97, (1), 530-533 View citations (13)
46. The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (3), 706-727 View citations (424)
    See also Working Paper The (Ir)relevance of Real Wage Rigidity in the New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions, Economics Working Paper Archive (2003) View citations (47) (2003)

2006

47. A simple, structural, and empirical model of the antipodean transmission mechanism
    New Zealand Economic Papers, 2006, 40, (2), 91-126 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series (2005) View citations (5) (2005)
48. The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search
    Labour Economics, 2006, 13, (4), 459-477 View citations (84)

2004

49. Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
    American Economic Review, 2004, 94, (1), 190-217 View citations (973)
    See also Working Paper Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy, Economics Working Paper Archive (2003) View citations (9) (2003)

2003

50. Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, 28, (2), 273-285 View citations (300)

Chapters

2006

1. A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, 2006, pp 313-382 View citations (153)
   See also Working Paper A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics (2005) View citations (395) (2005)