Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries

Hao Tan and John A. Mathews

No 07-07, DRUID Working Papers from DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies

Abstract: In this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.

Keywords: Industry cycle; business cycle; technology cycle; business dynamics; VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L60 L63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-ind, nep-rmg and nep-tid
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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