Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam

Markus Brueckner and Kien Nguyen
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Markus Brueckner

ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics from Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics

Abstract: The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014.

Date: 2016-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-gro, nep-int and nep-sea
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Working Paper: Growth in international commodity prices, the terms of trade, and GDP per capita: A case study of Vietnam (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-643

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