Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy

Markus Brückner, Antonio Ciccone and Andrea Tesei

No 2011-11, School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers from University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy

Abstract: We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.

Keywords: democracy; oil price shocks; persistent income shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O10 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2011-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cwa, nep-ene and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy (2013)
Journal Article: Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy (2012)
Working Paper: Oil price shocks, income and democracy (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-11

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