Revisiting empirical studies on the liquidity effect: An identication-robust approach

Firmin Doko Tchatoka, Lauren Slinger () and Virginie Masson
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Lauren Slinger: School of Economics, University of Adelaide

No 2020-02, School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers from University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy

Abstract: The liquidity effect, the short run negative response of interest rates to an increase in the money supply, has been the subject of a large number of studies, most of which based on the estimation of structural vector autoregressive models using standard instrumental variable methods (see e.g. Gali, 1992, Quarterly Journal of Economics). Using data from both the United States and Australia, we show that these SVAR models are weakly identified, and therefore the standard IV estimates of the structural coefficients and impulse response functions are biased and inconsistent. We use statistical procedures robust to weak instruments, along with the projection method of Dufour and Taamouti (2005, Econometrica), to construct confidence sets with correct coverage rate for the structural parameters and impact response functions of Gali's four variable IS-LM SVAR model. We find that these confidence sets are in general unbounded or large, and further, contain zero, thus suggesting that the evidence of the liquidity effect found in previous studies is empirically fragile. Our findings align with Pagan and Robertson (1998, Review of Economics and Statistics) who first pointed out possible identification issues in SVAR models.

Keywords: Corruption; Liquidity effect; weak instruments; AR-statistic; projection method; confidence sets; correct coverage rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C36 E3 E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-mac and nep-ore
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