The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

Mary Amiti, Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2019, vol. 33, issue 4, 187-210

Abstract: We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration during 2018. In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Therefore, the full incidence of the tariffs has fallen on domestic consumers and importers so far, and our estimates imply a reduction in aggregate US real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We see similar patterns for foreign countries that have retaliated with their own tariffs against the United States, which suggests that the trade war has also reduced the real income of these other countries.

JEL-codes: D72 E23 E31 F13 L14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.33.4.187
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (176)

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