Impacts of Crisis Events on International Tourism Demand in Thailand (in Thai)

Akarapong Untong (), Vicente Ramos (), Javier Rey-Maquieira () and Mingsarn Kaosa-ard ()
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Akarapong Untong: Public Policy Studies Institute, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
Vicente Ramos: Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Javier Rey-Maquieira: Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Mingsarn Kaosa-ard: Public Policy Studies Institute, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Applied Economics Journal, 2011, vol. 18, issue 2, 45-64

Abstract: This study assesses the impacts of nine major crisis events during 2001-2009 on the declining number of foreign tourists in Thailand. The SARIMA with intervention models and X-12-ARIMA are applied. The results show that each of the crises gave different effects on the number of tourists depending on the duration of situation, type of crisis, and country of origin. The impacts from the disease outbreaks were greater than those from other crises, but the degrees of impacts are likely to decrease if the similar outbreaks occur. In contrast, the impact from the internal political chaos was relatively small for its first time crisis, but it will be greater if it happens again. The Tsunami gave a big impact but the recovery rate was faster than that of other crises. The 9/11 event had made a minimal impact on Thai tourism. Based on the results, it is suggested that solving the internal politics should be the first priority if it aims to enhance Thailand’s tourism industry. In addition, the measures used for solving crises should be designed to fit with each of foreign tourist markets’ diverse responsiveness.

Keywords: crisis events; international tourism demand; SARIMA; intervention models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C19 C22 C59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aej:apecjn:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:45-64

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