Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach

Marinozzi Tomas

No 4616, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers from Asociación Argentina de Economía Política

Abstract: Probability forecasts are gaining popularity in the macroeconomic discipline as point forecasts lack the ability to capture the level of uncertainty in fundamental variables like inflation, growth, exchange rate, or unemployment. This paper explores the use of probability forecasts to predict inflation in Argentina. The paper tests 30 different probabilistic models and evaluates them using scoring rules. Results show that parsimonious univariate models have a relatively similar performance to that of the multivariate models around central scenarios but fail to capture tail risks, particularly at longer horizons.

JEL-codes: C4 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2022-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aep:anales:4616

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