Interpreting the Shared Socio-economic Pathways under Climate Change for the ECOWAS region through a stakeholder and multi-model process

Amanda Palazzo, Joost M. Vervoort, Daniel Mason- D'Croz, Lucas Rutting, Petr Havlik, Shahnila Islam, Jules Bayala, Hame Kadi Kadi, Philip Thornton and Robert Zougmore
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Mason-D'Croz

No 246970, 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE)

Abstract: The IPCC community’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development futures focused on drivers of challenges to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, the impacts and drivers of plausible future development at any national or regional level have yet to be examined for consistency within the global narrative. In this paper, we present four globally-consistent regional scenarios on Western Africa’s development that have been used to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. The regional scenarios were outlined independently by regional stakeholders but built around the context of the SSPs. The scenarios were quantified using two agricultural models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders. Our paper 1) demonstrates how linkages of global SSPs and regional multi-stakeholder scenarios can be achieved through a process of critical comparison, starting from regional priorities, to produce consistent scenarios for future regional development; 2) provides insights for Western Africa on the future of development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts in both qualitative and quantitative scenarios; 3) reports on a set of scalable scenarios for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use to build and test robust agriculture and climate policies.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaae16:246970

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.246970

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