The economic impact of climate change on cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario

Ning An and Paul J. Thomassin

No 205702, 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of alternative climate change scenarios on representative cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario. Mixed Integer Dynamic Linear Programming models are used to determine the annual optimal land and labor allocations over a 30 year time horizon. In the modeling process, five climate scenarios are modeled, along with different combinations of CO2 enhancement and water limitation. Parameters, such as crop prices, costs of production, and crop yields, are simulated and projected into the future using various methods, such as Monte Carlo simulation, Crystal Ball Predictor and DSSAT cropping system model. Rotation and diversification constraints, as well as participation in public risk management programs are also incorporated into the optimization procedures. The results show that the economic impact of climate change varies by scenario, with the CO2 effect and water limitation having a more significant effect than the specific climate scenarios. Technology development, as well as the public insurance programs can contribute to the reduction of economic vulnerability.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp, nep-env and nep-ino
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea15:205702

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205702

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