Detecting the Sources of Information Rigidity: Analyzing Forecast Bias and Smoothing in USDA’s Soybean Forecasts

Stephen MacDonald and Mark Ash

No 235349, 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: USDA’s U.S. soybean ending stock forecasts are upwardly biased. To determine the source of this bias, we examine the revision characteristics of the ending stocks forecasts, and examine USDA’s forecasts of other U.S. soybean balance sheet variables and foreign soybean balance sheet variables. Bias in USDA’s soybean export forecasts is the most likely source of ending stock forecast bias. In turn, bias in the U.S. export forecasts has diverse sources, including bias in foreign trade estimates and late in the forecast cycle slow updating of the forecasts to reflect new information.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea16:235349

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235349

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