The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

Yuquan W. Zhang, Jianhong E. Mu and Mark Musumba

No 235387, 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Climate change (CC) can influence farmers’ crop choices and result in changes in the regionally varying crop mixes. Using a data set including sown area shares for each crop at province level over the most recent time period of 2000 through 2013 in China, this study employed a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) system to investigate the effects of climate variables on regional crop mixes. The influence of economic and land use intensity on crop area shares were also examined. Results show that winter temperature appears to be a more determining factor than growing season temperature for a region’s crop mix. Also regions with comparatively high farming values tend to see larger percentages of vegetables and orchards. As temperature rises, grains and soybeans that are linked to traditional food security may encounter compromises in production, whereas tubers, small oil crops, vegetables, and orchards would very likely see increases in area shares. Nonetheless, vegetables and orchards may not necessarily step in under future CC due to cost and land use intensity reasons.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cna, nep-env and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea16:235387

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235387

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