Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Climate and Economic Uncertainty

Yongyang Cai, Alla A. Golub, Thomas Hertel and Kenneth Judd

No 235981, 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Since the 1950s, increased agricultural productivity has allowed food supply growth to outpace demand on a global scale, resulting in a downward trend in world prices. Investments into agricultural research and development (R&D) have been the foundation for this achievement, but there is a long lag in agricultural productivity response to the investments. The optimal path of R&D spending depends on future population, income and climate change, all of which are highly uncertain. This study offers a dynamic framework for analyzing optimal agricultural R&D spending in the 21st century factoring in uncertainties in these drivers, as well as lagged pay offs on investments into improvements of agricultural productivity.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eff and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea16:235981

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235981

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