Canada’s Changing International Trade Landscape – Opportunities, Threats and Forgone Opportunities for the Beef Industry

Kathryn Forrester

No 253210, 7th Annual Canadian Agri-Food Policy Conference, January 11-13, 2017, Ottawa, ON from Canadian Agricultural Economics Society

Abstract: Canada’s international trade landscape under which the Canadian beef industry must operate may change in important ways in the near future. The Trans Pacific partnership agreement provided additional opportunities for the beef industry, but those may now represent opportunities forgone in the wake of the recent US election. During the US election, there were explicit references to either renegotiating NAFTA or “tearing it up”. This thesis provides an analysis of the various possible effects on Canadian beef trade based on a variety of trade agreement outcome scenarios. The partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis (GSIM) model (Francois and Hall,2003) was adapted to undertake the analysis. This single product, multi-region model provided trade and welfare results that can be compared between scenarios that depend upon the retaining of NAFTA and the potential evolution of the TPP.Le paysage de commerce international dans lequel doit opérer l'industrie canadienne du bœuf pourrait changer de manière importante dans un avenir très rapproché. Le Partenariat transpacifique fournit des occasions supplémentaires pour l'industrie du bœuf qui pourraient maintenant devenir des occasions manquées étant donné les récentes élections américaines. Durant cette élection, la possibilité de modifier ou d'annuler l'ALENA a été soulevée explicitement. Cette thèse fournit une analyse des effets possibles de divers scénarios de dénouement concernant les ententes de commerce sur l'industrie du bœuf canadien. Le modèle d'équilibre partiel d'analyse de simulation mondiale (François et Hall, 2003) a été adapté afin d'entreprendre cette analyse. Ce modèle multirégion à produit unique fournit des résultats sur le commerce et le bien-être pouvant être comparés aux scénarios qui dépendent du maintien de l'ALENA et l'évolution potentielle du PTP.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:cafp17:253210

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253210

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