Too Early to Pick Winners: Disagreement across Experts Implies the Need to Diversify R&D Investment

Laura Diaz Anadon, Erin Baker, Valentina Bosetti and Lara Aleluia Reis

No 232924, MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Abstract: Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be decreasing returns to R&D and report median cost reductions around 20% for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the returns to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. Indeed, the wide divergence of opinions suggests that it is still too early to pick winners and that a broad portfolio of investments may be the best option.

Keywords: Research; and; Development/Tech; Change/Emerging; Technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2016-03-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-ino
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/232924/files/NDL2016-022.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Too Early to Pick Winners: Disagreement across Experts Implies the Need to Diversify R&D Investment (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:feemmi:232924

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.232924

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().