An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay

Victor F. Gauto

No 126864, 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of Mercosur on Paraguayan import flows using detailed trade values to identify patterns of trade creation and trade diversion at aggregate and disaggregate commodity levels. It is well know that the share of foreign trade with respect to GDP is larger for small countries. Consequently, the effects of a trade agreement between large and small countries are likely to be larger in small economies. I use a variant of the gravity model employing a reparameterization of the difference-in-difference estimator to analyze import flows over time from member and non-member countries. Additionally, I explicitly include zero trade flows and implement a Heckman sample selection correction along with country fixed effects. I find the creation of Mercosur has increased average regional imports by 266% since 1995, which is evidence of trade creation. The greatest import expansions have been in Beverages and Tobacco and Animal and vegetable oils & fats. Finally, I do not find statistically significant evidence of trade diversion in any of the ten commodity categories.

Keywords: International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/126864/files/Gautopaper.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae12:126864

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126864

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil from International Association of Agricultural Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().