Process-based simulation of regional agricultural supply functions in Southwestern Germany using farm-level and agent-based models

Christian Troost and Thomas Berger

No 211929, 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: In combination with crop growth models, farm-level models allow an in-depth, process-based analysis of farmer adaptation to climate change and agricultural policy. Evaluated for all farms in an area and extended by interactions, farm-level models become agent-based models that allow simulating aggregate regional production and structural change. Confined to a local or regional scope, however, they cannot directly incorporate price feedbacks that play out at global scale. In this contribution, we use experimental designs to evaluate a non-connected agent-based model for the full space of potential future price developments. We discuss and compare the use of standard regression analysis and non-parametric, automatic methods (MARS and Kriging) to summarize supply behavior over the simulated price ranges. Estimated supply functions constitute a surrogate model for the original agent-based model and could be used to iterate detailed regional analysis with national or global market models in an efficient way.

Keywords: Agribusiness; International Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae15:211929

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211929

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