CLIMATE CHANGE AND PRODUCTION RISK IN CHINESE AQUACULTURE

Rainer Holst and Xiaohua Yu

No 91275, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany from International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium

Abstract: Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tra
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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/91275/files/Ho ... ATRC_Summer_2010.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Climate Change and Production Risk in Chinese Aquaculture (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iatr10:91275

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.91275

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