Higher Derivative Block Method Forecast Analysis of Agricultural Components and Their Impact on Economic Growth

Oluwatoyese Oluwapemi Oyetade and Oluwaseun Adeyeye

International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), 2024, vol. 12, issue 01

Abstract: This article assesses specific components of the agricultural sector as it impacts the growth of a developing nation’s economy. A mathematical model is developed with the aid of logistic growth model for the variables and the resulting model is solved numerically using a higher derivative block method to forecast the data for the agricultural components for years 2020- 2025, thus utilizing data ranging from 1981-2025. Econometric analysis was carried out using ARDL bound test method and the findings indicate the existence of short and long run relationship between food production, livestock, and economic growth. In addition, the Pairwise Granger causality showed the causality movement and ascertain the positive link among the variables. Therefore, this research suggests the need to encourage food production and livestock as components of agriculture through precise economic policies and funding for progress in the country’s economic outlook.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ijfaec:341521

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.341521

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