Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update

Martin Banse () and Florian Freund

No 271872, Thünen Working Paper from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: The United Kingdom (UK) is an important destination for German agri-food products. This becomes especially apparent when looking at the German-UK trade balance of agricultural products, where Germany had a surplus of 3.1 Billion € in 2016. Furthermore, the UK is the trade partner where Germany exhibits the largest trade surplus. Those facts already suggest that Germany is likely to be affected by a changing trade environment following Brexit. In this working paper we are considering a soft Brexit scenario where we assume a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement and a more protective hard Brexit scenario with reciprocal imposition of MFN tariffs between EU and UK. The model results suggest that the decline in production value of German agri-food products amounts 400 Million € in the soft Brexit scenario and is three times larger in the hard Brexit scenario.

Keywords: Agricultural Finance; Political Economy; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2018-04-20
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwp:271872

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.271872

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