Kurzgefasste Analyse der Ergebnisse der Viehzählung vom 3. Mai 2023 und Prognose der Rind- und Schweinefleischerzeugung in Deutschland bis Ende des Jahres 2024

Josef Efken

No 338731, Thünen Working Paper from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: On global level, pig meat market is characterized by weak demand from leading import countries like China. Despite limited production growth there is enough pig meat available for exports. Quite the contrary happens with bovine meat. The USA in particular is showing a strong demand for imports. The world market is supplied mainly by South American countries and Australia. The situation within the EU can be explained by a reluctance to buy and the search for cheap meat products due to high inflation. Mainly pork production was significantly reduced in almost all EU Member states. The decline in bovine meat production is also continuing. Weak demand, high prices (driven partly by the export markets but also by high production costs and competitive pressure for scarce agricultural land, meaning alternative uses of the land) and weak demand for milk and milk products are the main reasons for this description. Also, in Germany the unwillingness to buy and consume meat is continuing. This has been the case for pork in the recent past but is now also affecting cattle meat. Due to the increase of production costs the producer prices increased and so did consumer prices. As a result, a further decline of demand can be seen. The decline of cattle stocks at the May census was somewhat less than in previous years. Still, there is a large difference in the size of the farms between western and eastern German states. Despite the high producer prices in all different categories fewer animals continue to be delivered to the slaughterhouses. A steady development as in the recent past is expected for the near future. The consumption reduction will be stronger than the production reduction so that there is room for an increase of exports. This should be possible because global markets are currently receptive. German Pig stocks have been exceptionally reduced in the past two years. During these two years alone nearly 20 % of pig farms give up pig keeping. Accordingly, slaughtering decreased at a rate similar to the stock decrease. There was a massive reduction of exports due to the still rampant ASF in Germany und the corresponding export restrictions. This massive change in production is mainly driven by the stubbornly persistent decline in the consumption of pork in Germany.

Keywords: Livestock; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwp:338731

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.338731

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