Evaluating the Prediction Performance of the International Food Security Assessment's Production Models: A Cross-Validation Approach

Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus, Felix Baquedano and Stephen Morgan

No 333530, USDA Miscellaneous from United States Department of Agriculture

Abstract: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model was developed to help USDA and its stakeholders evaluate the food security status of 76 low- and middle-income countries. The IFSA model provides an estimate of total food demand and food production, both elements in measuring food security. The demand side of the IFSA model is used to estimate the prevalence of country-level food insecurity based on an aggregate food consumption threshold of 2,100 calories per capita per day. The gap between aggregate domestic food production and food demand is used to estimate the implied additional supply required for each of the 76 countries in the IFSA, which is an indication of potential import needs, including food aid. The primary objective of the IFSA’s supply-side modeling work is to project production. This research evaluates the production model to determine the best performing prediction model specification. This report advances previous research by using a data-driven approach to select the best performing model specification.

Keywords: International Development; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2022-11-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:usdami:333530

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.333530

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