Did the policy responses to COVID-19 protect Italian households’ incomes? Evidence from incomes nowcasting in microsimulation models

Maria Teresa Monteduro, Dalila De Rosa and Chiara Subrizi
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Maria Teresa Monteduro: Ministry of Economy and Finance
Dalila De Rosa: Ministry of Economy and Finance
Chiara Subrizi: Ministry of Economy and Finance

Working Papers from Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance

Abstract: This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on Italian households’ income distribution, inequality and poverty risk, assessing the effects of policy responses during 2020. By building a unique and wide database with the latest survey, tax and administrative data at individual and firm level, and by using the micro-simulation model Taxben-DF from the Italian Department of Finance, the analysis nowcasts the income loss due to the economic shutdown since March 2020 and simulates most of the interventions adopted by the Government from March to December 2020. Results suggest that policy measures in response to the first pandemic year have been effective in keeping overall income inequality under control, not being able yet to avoid a concerning polarization of incomes and large heterogeneous effects in terms of both income losses and measures’ compensation.

Keywords: COVID-19; inequalities; administrative and survey data; microsimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 C81 D31 D63 H31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-eur
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