Do Geopolitical Risks and Political Stability Drive Foreign Direct Investments? New Evidence from Dynamic Panel CS-ARDL Model

Alper Yılmaz

Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 2024, vol. 9, issue 1, 61-87

Abstract: In this research, we aim to highlight the impact of geopolitical risks and political stability on investment flows directed towards 10 high-risky countries in the relevant database of Caldara and Icaivello (2018) for the period from 2000 to 2022 with yearly data. On that note, we employed the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test to check long run relationship. Then, we estimate co-integration parameters (coefficients) employing the CS-ARDL method to avoid estimation problems that arise from cross-section dependency and slope homogeneity. The results reveal that geopolitical risks have a negative effect on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for both the short and long term. The findings also prompt us to conclude that political stability in the host country has a significant impact on inward FDI in the long run. Cross-section dependency and delta tests indicate that geopolitical risk generates heterogeneous effects on host countries. In the last section, robustness checks with alternative estimators and Granger non-causality validate the main results at a conventional confidence level. To this end, policymakers may consider strengthening international institutions and organizations, giving importance to peaceful initiatives, multilateral agreements (commercial or economic), and diplomatic negotiations, as significant policy tools to increase investment inflows by enhancing stability, transparency, and predictability in governance.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Geopolitical Risks; Political Stability; CS-ARDL Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 D72 D81 F21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3602557 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ahs:journl:v:9:y:2024:i:1:p:61-87

DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1405599

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance from Ersan ERSOY
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ersan Ersoy ().