An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France

Christelle Baunez (), Mickael Degoulet (), Stéphane Luchini and Patrick Pintus
Additional contact information
Christelle Baunez: Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone
Mickael Degoulet: Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone

No 2036, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: This note provides an early assessment of the reinforced measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in France, which include a curfew of selected areas and culminate in a second COVID-19-related lock-down that started on October 30, 2020 and is still ongoing. We analyse the change in virus propagation across age groups and across départements using an acceleration index introduced in Baunez et al. (2020). We find that while the pandemic is still in the acceleration regime, acceleration decreased notably with curfew measures and this more rapidly so for the more vulnerable population group, that is, for people older than 60. Acceleration continued to decline under lock-down, but more so for the active population under 60 than for those above 60. For the youngest population aged 0 to 19, curfew measures did not reduce acceleration but lock-down does. This suggests that if health policies aim at protecting the elderly population generally more at risk to suffer severe consequences from COVID-19, curfew measures may be effective enough. However, looking at the departmental map of France, we find that curfews have not necessarily been imposed in départements where acceleration was the largest.

Keywords: COVID-19; effects of curfew and lock-down; acceleration index; real-time analysis; France (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/fil ... /wp_2020_-_nr_36.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2036

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France AMU-AMSE - 5-9 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet, CS 50498 - 13205 Marseille Cedex 1. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gregory Cornu ().