A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Eugen Pircalabelu ()
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Eugen Pircalabelu: Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium

No 2021030, LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA from Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA)

Abstract: We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modeling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modeling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number.

Keywords: reproduction number; time dependency; spline modeling; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12
Date: 2021-04-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiz:louvad:2021030

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