Projection of health service consumption and patient payment revenues in Central and Eastern European countries using system dynamics modeling

Milena Pavlova, Jelena Arsenijevic, Wim Groot and Godefridus G. Merode
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Jelena Arsenijevic: Maastricht University Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI, Maastricht University Medical Center, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences Maastricht The Netherlands
Wim Groot: Maastricht University Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI, Maastricht University Medical Center, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences Maastricht The Netherlands
Godefridus G. Merode: Maastricht University Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI, Maastricht University Medical Center, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences Maastricht The Netherlands

Society and Economy, 2012, vol. 34, issue 2, 359-379

Abstract: Questions concerning the use of evidence in policy making increasingly attract the interest of both policymakers and researchers. It is broadly recognized that the development of integrated policy frameworks can be facilitated by the use of quantitative analytical methods, such as system modeling, computer simulation, trend analysis, and scenario analysis. Although policy projections based on these methods cannot provide direct solutions to policy problems, they can help to minimize the undesirable effects of a policy choice. This paper presents the concept design of a policy projection tool that estimates the macro-level effects of patient charges. In particular, the paper explores the usefulness of system dynamics modeling for the development of the projection tool. The overall objective of the policy projection tool is to generate evidence relevant for the analysis of patient payment policies. Based on the concept projection tool, a simplified consumption-revenue module is developed for the estimation of the annual health care consumption and the revenue from patient payments during one year. The module is applied to data from six Central and Eastern European countries to test its accuracy. The results from the module testing provide directions for further modeling steps.

Keywords: patient charges; policy assessment; system dynamics modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I11 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
Note: The study is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities, Project ASSPRO CEE 2007 (Grant Agreement no. 217431). The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or its services.
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