 Most probable or more prudent? Analysing CFP's macroeconomic projections, 2015-2019No 02/2022, CFP Occasional Papers from Portuguese Public Finance Council Abstract: The CFP macroeconomic projections provide an independent contribute for the public debate on economic developments and fiscal policy in Portugal. They are an important input for the endorsement of macroeconomic forecasts underlying budgetary programming documents. According to the Law, these must be based on the most likely macro scenario or on a more prudent scenario. Naturally, the CFP projections are also following the same principles, and so it is crucial to assess whether they are the "most probable" or "more prudent". This paper makes a first study of CFP macroeconomic projections regarding forecasting performance and its optimality properties. In general, the results suggest that CFP projections are prudent and fulfil most optimality conditions, proving to be a reliable contribute to policy debate. The findings also show that CFP projection errors are also in line with those of other institutions that develop scenarios under the no policy change assumption. Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasts; forecast performance and evaluation; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:alf:opaper:2022-02 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in CFP Occasional Papers from Portuguese Public Finance Council Contact information at EDIRC. |
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