Forecasting Exchange Rates Out-of-Sample with Panel Methods and Real-Time Data

Onur Ince ()

No 13-04, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports “forecasts” using revised data, I construct a quarterly real-time dataset that incorporates only the information available to market participants when the forecasts are made. Using bootstrapped out-of-sample test statistics, the exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals performs better at the one-quarter horizon and panel estimation is not able to improve its performance. The PPP model, however, forecasts better at the 16-quarter horizon and its performance increases in panel framework. The results are in accord with previous research on long-run PPP and Taylor rule models. Key Words: Exchange Rate Forecasting, Taylor Rules, Real-Time Data, Out-of-Sample Test Statistics

JEL-codes: C23 C53 E32 E52 F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1304.pdf (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Forecasting exchange rates out-of-sample with panel methods and real-time data (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:apl:wpaper:13-04

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