A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists

Anatoly Vishnevsky () and Ekaterina Shcherbakova ()
Additional contact information
Anatoly Vishnevsky: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Ekaterina Shcherbakova: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

Russian Journal of Economics, 2018, vol. 4, issue 3, 229-248

Abstract: The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demographic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, despite the long-run population ageing, was declining. Both of these features are unfavorable from the economic point of view. In Russia, the situation is aggravated by the peculiarities of the population pyramid, heavily deformed by the social and military upheavals of the 20th century. The article shows that, for a long time, the demographic trends in Russia favored its economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavorable demographic changes. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduction in the working-age population and its ageing and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and, at the same time, make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed.

Keywords: Russia; demographic changes; population growth; natural increase; net migration; population ageing; ageing of the labor force; retirement age. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://rujec.org/article/30166/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:4:y:2018:i:3:p:229-248

DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.30166

Access Statistics for this article

Russian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Alexey Kudrin

More articles in Russian Journal of Economics from ARPHA Platform
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Teodor Georgiev ().