Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity

Arvydas Jadevicius, Brian Sloan and Andrew Brown

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: The paper investigates whether complex property market forecasting techniques are better at forecasting than simple specifications. As the research and initial modelling results suggest, simple models outperform the more complex structures. It therefore calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures. Further planned research will present an alternative simple modelling approach, which was successfully employed by economists, helping to achieve greater predictive outcomes.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2013-10 (text/html)
https://eres.architexturez.net/system/files/pdf/eres2013_10.content.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_10

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Architexturez Imprints ().