The Accuracy of Consensus Real Estate Forecasts Revisited

Patrick McAllister and Ilir Nase

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Building on previous research evaluating the IPF Consensus Forecasts, this study updates and expands upon the existing body of work. The paper evaluates forecasting accuracy at the sector level and assesses the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance of each sector. It also evaluates the performance of the implied yield forecasts and concludes that it is failure in yield forecasting that is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. The ability of the consensus forecasts to identify the best and worst performing sectors was relatively good with a high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings.

Keywords: Forecasting; performance; accuracy.; Consensus.; Commercial; real; estate. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2019-374 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_374

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Architexturez Imprints ().