COVID-19 Impact on Turkish Real Estate Market: Analysis of a Credit-Driven Growth Model

Kerem Yavuz Arslanli

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: In the first section, we investigate the outlook of the Turkish real estate market in the Pre-COVID era. The fundamentals were found to be not changing dramatically from previous studies. Cyclical credit growth patterns are detected as a matter of Government intervention to the markets. n the second part, we focus on credit expansion that led to the residential market boom. 1-year non-payment option made the mortgage market appealing. Other non-residential markets are in trouble which has ties to foreign consumption, especially the EU. In the third part of the paper, we tried to forecast how the market will perform under covid. The fast learning curve was expected to be on the side of tackle covid, but the 3rd wave becomes more severe and hits the casualties to a new high level. Office and retail are most affected and may not recover sooner than residential. Industry and logistics look very promising, but the consumption declines, and the new normal set the expenditures even low.

Keywords: COVID19; Credit Driven Growth; Real Estate Markets; Residential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-isf and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_226

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