ECB Significant-Bank Risk Profile and COVID-19 Crisis Containment

Bozena Gulija (), Costanza Russo () and Dalvinder Singh ()
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Costanza Russo: Queen Mary University of London
Dalvinder Singh: University of Warwick

No 2, IADI Sponsored Papers from International Association of Deposit Insurers

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented degree of public and private intervention to avert a social, economic and financial crisis. EU member states, and especially participating member states of the European Banking Union (EBU), introduced a broad set of measures, including public guarantees, moratoria and amendments to the European Commission State Aid framework, to contain the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy. The EU suspended its fiscal rules and the European Central Bank increased its monetary operations. The paper uses an empirical analysis to review the impact of public support on the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) banks and the acutely exposed participating EBU member states because of their significant increase in government debt levels. We argue that the containment of the crisis creates a major uncertainty, namely a possible insolvency lag once the benefits of the public support subside and insolvencies start to materialise. This uncertainty is associated with non-financial corporates, the safety and soundness of the SSM significant banks and sovereign debt sustainability, forming a new 'doom loop'. We suggest the design of a 'transition phase' as a mechanism of accountability to improve the understanding of those uncertainties to ensure financial stability.

Keywords: deposit insurance; bank resolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G21 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec and nep-mon
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