Debt Dynamics under Uncertainty: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova

Olesea Speian

Economic Studies journal, 2024, issue 2, 50-63

Abstract: Public debt management plays a pivotal role in ensuring fiscal stability and fostering economic growth, particularly amidst unprecedented challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and energy crises. The main aim of this study is to provide accurate projections for public debt, offering valuable insights to guide sustainable debt management practices. Utilizing historical data from the Republic of Moldova spanning the period 2003-2023, the study employs the Monte Carlo simulation method to construct a fan chart. This chart presents a probability distribution of the general government debt-to-GDP ratio for the Republic of Moldova during 2023-2027. By generating multiple alternative scenarios for real GDP growth, real interest rates, and primary balances, policymakers can gain a comprehensive understanding of future debt trajectories and potential impacts of various policy decisions. These projections are essential tools to facilitate informed decision-making and promote effective debt management strategies in the face of economic uncertainties and challenges.

JEL-codes: E17 H63 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.iki.bas.bg/Journals/EconomicStudies/2024/2024-2/03_Olesea-Speian.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bas:econst:y:2024:i:2:p:50-63

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Studies journal from Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Diana Dimitrova ().