Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model

Christopher Cornell and Raphael Solomon

Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada

Abstract: Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad." One would interpret currency crises (or recessions) as a shift from the good equilibrium to the bad. In this paper, the authors specify a dynamic investment-savings-aggregate-supply (IS-AS) model, determine its closed-form solution, and examine numerically its comparative statics. The authors estimate the model via maximum likelihood, using data for Argentina, Canada, and Turkey. Since the data show no support for the multiple-equilibrium explanation of fluctuations, the authors cast doubt on the third-generation models of currency crisis.

Keywords: Uncertainty; and; monetary; policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C62 E59 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fmk, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-mon
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