Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?

Tito Nícias da Silva Filho

No 310, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: The Focus Survey is a cunningly designed economic survey carried out by the Central Bank of Brazil. However, along its existence there have occasionally been some criticisms that its median forecast is “biased” due to allegedly strategic reasons. Although different groups of agents do have different strategic behaviours, one cannot take for granted that some groups predict differently from others. This paper tests if there are statistically significant differences in forecast accuracy between different groups of participants in the Focus Survey. Evidence shows some differences in forecasting ability among groups, but overall financial system forecasters have similar forecasting accuracy than consultancies.

Date: 2013-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps310.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bcb:wpaper:310

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez ().