Population ageing and the public finance burden of dementia: A simulation analysis

Maria Pi Alperin, Magali Perquin () and Gastón Giordana

No 170, BCL working papers from Central Bank of Luxembourg

Abstract: This paper uses long-term population projections to study the evolution of dementia in Luxembourg through 2070, as well as its impact on public expenditure through healthcare and long-term care. We extend the Giordana and Pi Alperin (2022) model by adding an algorithm to identify individuals suffering from dementia. This allows us to simulate dementia prevalence among individuals aged 50 and more in several scenarios incorporating alternative hypotheses about risk factors, new treatments and comorbidities (including long-run effects of COVID-19). Public health policies reducing stroke and hypertension risk could lower dementia prevalence by 17% and public expenditure on healthcare for dementia patients by a similar amount. A new treatment extending the mild dementia phase could nearly double prevalence and possibly triple the associated healthcare costs. Finally, past exposure to COVID-19 could raise prevalence by 12% to 24% in the medium term and public expenditure on dementia healthcare by 6% to 12%. Public expenditure on long-term care for dementia patients would increase even more, generally doubling by 2070.

Keywords: Dementia; Dynamic micro-simulation; Healthcare; Health-related public expenditure; Long-term care; Luxembourg; SHARE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D3 H30 I10 I12 I13 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-hea and nep-pbe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Population ageing and the public finance burden of dementia: A simulation analysis (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp170

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