Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina

Emilio Blanco, Fiorella Dogliolo and Lorena Garegnani

No 202299, BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department

Abstract: We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID- 19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the parameters in the DFM and a re-estimated DFM with updated parameters using the most recent information. Considering the extreme observations that occurred during this particular year, we explore whether including new high frequency indicators (such as energy consumption and mobility) help capture more accurately the severe downturn.

Keywords: nowcasting; dynamic factor models; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2022-03
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