Potential growth of the spanish economy

Pilar Cuadrado () and Enrique Moral-Benito
Additional contact information
Pilar Cuadrado: Banco de España

No 1603, Occasional Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper presents an estimate of the Spanish economy’s potential growth. This estimate is based on a production function methodology that includes certain refi nements on previous versions and generates less procyclical potential output growth estimates than those traditionally considered in the literature. As a result, the (positive) output gap estimated in expansions is higher and that estimated in recessions is lower. According to these results, given the available population projections and under the assumption that total factor productivity (TFP) and structural unemployment will behave in line with historical patterns, the Spanish economy’s potential growth is expected to recover gradually over the coming years but, in line with projections by international organisations, to lower rates than those in the expansion period. However, per capita growth rates fully recover to the pre-crisis levels, which highlights the importance of population projections in shaping the Spanish potential growth.

Keywords: potential growth; output gap; Spain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E13 E23 E32 O47 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2016-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-eff and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... /16/Fich/do1603e.pdf First version, February 2016 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:1603

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Occasional Papers from Banco de España Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España ().