Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España

Eva Ortega, Pablo Burriel (), José Fernández (), Eva Ferraz () and Samuel Hurtado ()
Additional contact information
José Fernández: Banco de España
Eva Ferraz: Banco de España
Samuel Hurtado: Banco de España

No 717, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts published by the national statistical office, suggested that a reestimation of the model was due. This paper presents such reestimation with newer data (up to the end of 2005), and includes some modifications that were deemed necessary in certain equations. The quarterly model of the Bank of Spain keeps a similar structure to its previous version; it still is basically a demand-driven model. It is found that the Spanish economy shows, in general, higher sensitivity than in previous periods to changes in exogenous variables, especially in financial conditions. The new model reflects, too, changes in demographic trends, and presents an external sector less sentitive to changes in price-competitiveness.

Keywords: economía española; Spanish economy; modelo macroeconómico; macroeconometric model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 E17 E20 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2007-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... jo/07/Fic/dt0717.pdf First spanish version, June 2007 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:0717

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