Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution

Galo Nuño Barrau and Cristiana Manescu

No 1518, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the so-called «shale oil revolution» on oil prices and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium model of the world oil market in which Saudi Arabia is the dominant firm, with the rest of the producers as a competitive fringe. Our results suggest that most of the expected increase in US oil supply due to the shale oil revolution has already been incorporated into prices and that it will produce an additional increase of 0.2 percent in the GDP of oil importers in the period 2010-2018. We also employ the model to analyse the collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 and conclude that it was mainly due to positive unanticipated supply shocks.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; general equilibrium; shale oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-ene and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution (2015)
Working Paper: Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1518

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